Resource information
Climate-induced livelihood transitions
in the agricultural systems of Africa are increasingly
likely. A recent study by Jones and Thornton (2009) points
to the possibility of such climate-induced livelihood
transitions in the mixed crop-livestock rainfed
arid-semiarid systems of Africa. These mixed systems cover
over one million square kilometers of farmland in West
Africa, Eastern Africa, and Southeastern Africa. Their
characteristically scant rainfall usually causes crop
failure in one out of every six growing seasons and is thus
already marginal for crop production. Under many projected
climate futures, these systems will become drier and even
more marginal for crop production. This will greatly
increase the risk of cropping and among the several possible
coping and adaptation mechanisms, (e.g. totally abandoning
farming, diversification of income-generating activities
such as migration and off-farm employment, etc.)
agro-pastoralists may alter the relative emphasis that they
currently place on the crop and livestock components of the
farming system in favor of livestock. There has been only
limited analysis on what such climate induced transitions
might look like, but it is clear that the implications could
be profound in relation to social, environmental, economic
and political effects at local and national levels. This
study sought to identify areas in the mixed crop-livestock
systems in arid and semi-arid Africa where climate change
could compel currently sedentary farmers to abandon cropping
and to turn to nomadic pastoralism as a livelihood strategy,
using East Africa as a case study. While the current study
found no direct evidence for the hypothesized
extensification across semiarid areas in East Africa, it is
clear that systems are in transition with associated changes
not necessarily climate driven but linked to broader
socio-economic trends. Not surprisingly, many of the
households in the piloted sites face a wide array of
problems including poverty, food insecurity and inadequate
diets which will be aggravated by the looming risks posed by
climate change.
