study of changes in the rural built environment: Focus on calibration and improvement of an areal sampling approach

The paper describes the main phases and results of a study which is part of a broader research programme aimed at assessing the changes that have occurred in Italian rural landscapes since the Second World War. The research deals with the definition of a methodology suitable for analysing the changes in the rural built environment over wide areas. This methodology focuses on the definition of representative sample areas aimed to reduce survey costs while allowing results to be characterised by a known and provable degree of reliability and precision. Based on the results of a previous work (Tassinari, Carfagna, Benni, & Torreggiani (2008). Biosystems Engineering, 100, 435–447), where the authors defined the first phases of the sampling methodology and surveyed some building-density test variables on a pilot sample, this paper focuses on optimising both the criteria for the stratification of the sampling frame and the estimator used to assess the changes in the built area, as well as testing the method on a super-municipal study area in northern Italy for the 1975–2005 time span. The results contribute new knowledge within the broader field of the analysis and interpretation of trends in rural areas, which is fundamental to support proper land-use and landscape planning through accurate and efficient tools.