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Ecological degradation caused by rapid urbanisation has presented great challenges in southern China. Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) has long been the most common and sensitive index to describe vegetation growth and to monitor vegetation degradation. However, most of the studies have failed to adequately explore the complexity of the relationship between fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and impact factors. In this research, we first constructed a Semi-parametric Geographically Weighted Regression (SGWR) model to analyse both the stationary and nonstationary spatial relationships between FVC and driving factors in Guangdong province in southern China on a county level. Then, climate, topographic, land cover, and socio-economic factors were introduced into the model to distinguish impacts on FVC from 2000–2015. Results suggest that the positive and negative effects of rainfall and elevation coefficients alternated, and local urban land and population estimates indicated a negative association between FVC and the modelled factors in each period. The SGWR FVC make significantly improves performance of the geographically weighted regression and ordinary least squares models, with adjusted R2 higher than 0.78. The findings of this research demonstrated that, although urbanisation in the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong has encroached on the regional vegetation cover, the total vegetation area remained unchanged with the implementation of protection policies and regulations.
