Resource information
This paper uses a duration analysis
based on adoption data spanning more than 25 years from six
communities in the Central Highlands of Guatemala. The
analysis explores how household characteristics and external
trends play into both the adoption and diffusion processes
of non-traditional exports among smallholders. Adoption was
initially widespread and rapid, which led nontraditional
exports to be hailed as a pro-poor success, reaching all but
the smallest landholders. However, over time more than
two-thirds of adopters eventually dropped out of production
of nontraditional exports. Based on the analysis, production
of nontraditional exports appears to have delivered less
prosperity to adopters than initially promised. Although
smallholders may be enticed into entering into
nontraditional exports markets when conditions are
favorable, they may lack the capacity to overcome the
difficulties that inevitably arise in complex types of
cultivations and in highly variable global agricultural
markets. Governmental and non-governmental organizations can
attempt to mitigate these difficulties, but market forces
may overwhelm their efforts, with some adopters still unable
to compete in global markets.
