Vulnerability to Higher Oil Prices : Decomposition Analysis of One Hundred and 158 Countries between 2003 and 2008

This note examines changes in
vulnerability to oil price increases over a five-year period
ending in 2008. A decomposition analysis applied to one
hundred and fifty-eight countries found that vulnerability
had increased in eighty-two percent of countries, with more
than half experiencing vulnerability exceeding five percent
in 2008 and one fifth experiencing vulnerability exceeding
ten percent. This document explores the background of the
issue, and includes tabulation to indicate the countries
with greatest vulnerabilities, decomposition results for
Bank client countries in Africa, Europe and Central Asia,
Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia, and the Middle
East and North Africa, and corresponding tabulation for
non-IDA/IBRD countries.