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Bay areas are endowed with unique sea and land resources, location advantages, and high environmental carrying capacities. The rapid urbanization process has intensified the demand for limited natural resources, leading to a series of problems in coastal zones such as land use conflicts and the degradation of ecosystem services. Taking Quanzhou, a bay city in a metropolitan region, as an example, this paper established an accounting model of ecosystem services supply and consumption demand based on multisource data (meteorological site data, land use data and statistical data). We estimated the supply capacity and consumption demand of provisioning services, regulating services, and cultural services in Quanzhou from 2005 to 2015. In addition, the supply and demand of ecosystem services were simulated for 2030 under different scenarios. The results showed that the supply capacity of ecosystem services in Quanzhou was greater than the demand in general, but the supply-demand difference showed a gradual decrease. The high-value areas of supply capacity were concentrated in the upstream basin in the non-bay area, while the high-value areas of consumption demand were located downstream of the river basin in the bay area. The supply-demand difference in the bay area was negative, indicating that it was in a state of supply-demand imbalance and that the ecological security was under threat. Among the three simulated scenarios in 2030, the balance between supply and demand declined compared with the results of 2015, with the most serious decline in the natural scenario. The method to quantify the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns in supply and demand of ecosystem services could provide a decision-making reference for natural resource management in Quanzhou. This is conducive to the improvement and establishment of urban ecological security research systems, especially in bay areas that are lacking research.
