A "Delphi Exercise" as a Tool in Amazon Rainforest Valuation

The Amazon rainforest, the world's
largest and most biodiverse, represents a global public good
of which 15 percent has already been lost. The worldwide
value of preserving the remaining forest is today unknown. A
"Delphi" exercise was conducted involving more
than 200 environmental valuation experts from 36 countries,
who were asked to predict the outcome of a survey to elicit
willingness to pay for Amazon forest preservation among
their own countries' populations. Expert judgments of
average willingness-to-pay levels, per household per year,
to fund a plan to protect all of the current Amazon
rainforest up to 2050, range from $4 to $36 in 12 Asian
countries, to near $100 in Canada, Germany, and Norway, with
other high-income countries in between. Somewhat lower
willingness-to-pay values were found for a less strict plan
that allows a 12 percent further rainforest area reduction.
The elasticity of experts' willingness-to-pay
assessments with respect to own-country per capita income is
slightly below but not significantly different from unity
when results are pooled across countries and income is
adjusted for purchasing power parity.