Pathways toward Zero-Carbon Electricity Required for Climate Stabilization

This paper covers three policy-relevant
aspects of the carbon content of electricity that are well
established among integrated assessment models but
under-discussed in the policy debate. First, climate
stabilization at any level from 2 to 3°C requires
electricity to be almost carbon-free by the end of the
century. As such, the question for policy makers is not
whether to decarbonize electricity but when to do it.
Second, decarbonization of electricity is still possible and
required if some of the key zero-carbon technologies -- such
as nuclear power or carbon capture and storage -- turn out
to be unavailable. Third, progressive decarbonization of
electricity is part of every country's cost-effective
means of contributing to climate stabilization. In addition,
this paper provides cost-effective pathways of the carbon
content of electricity -- computed from the results of
AMPERE, a recent integrated assessment model comparison
study. These pathways may be used to benchmark existing
decarbonization targets, such as those set by the European
Energy Roadmap or the Clean Power Plan in the United States,
or inform new policies in other countries. The pathways can
also be used to assess the desirable uptake rates of
electrification technologies, such as electric and plug-in
hybrid vehicles, electric stoves and heat pumps, or
industrial electric furnaces.