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This study investigates the micro-determinants of land use change usingcommunity, household and plot histories, an ethnographic method that constructs paneldata from systematic oral recalls. A 20-year historical timeline (1975-1995) isconstructed for the village of La Lima in central Honduras, based on a random sample of97 plots. Changes in land use are examined using transition analysis and multinomiallogit analysis. Transition analysis shows that land use transitions were relativelyinfrequent in areas under extensive cultivation, but more so in areas of intensivecultivation; and that most changes favored intensification. Econometric analysis suggeststhat land use intensification was influenced by plot level variables (especially altitude,slope, distance to a road and tenure), farm level variables (human capital, farm size, andownership of productive implements), and by community variables (especially presenceof technical assistance programs).To the extent these results are found to be more broadly representative, theysuggest that there may be good potential to promote income-enhancing horticulturaldevelopment through investments in technical assistance and education in similarcommunities elsewhere in Honduras. The study concludes that the plot history approachis a potentially valuable tool for investigating the underlying causes of change in land useat the micro-level. The method is particularly well adapted to situations where theavailability of data is poor. It is also suggested that the approach would have additionalbenefits when replicated over a large number of sites as this would allow integration ofhigher order determinants (e.g. national policies and market incentives) while expandingthe applicability and representativity of findings.
