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We report the spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover changes from 1954 to 2008 in a hilly mountainous area in the Italian northern Apennine, and ecological factors and processes associated with these dynamics. Land cover patches were mapped and analysed at three time periods (1954, 1980 and 2008). Changes over time were detected by analysing a combination of multitemporal source data from airborne images and from field surveys. Relationships between cover classes and environmental variables were analysed for the year 2008. Grasslands and scrublands (corresponding to the Natura 2000 Habitats 6210 and 5130, respectively) were found to be the most threatened communities; they occupy small portions of the studied area and are subject to a marked dynamic towards the higher stages of the vegetation successions including a mesophilous and a thermophilous succession. The ability to estimate persistence times and evolution trends of vegetation types following land abandonment is an important tool in land management. Our combined approach yielded a good picture of the vegetation involved in biodiversity loss consequent to land abandonment, as well as estimation of the expected time for this loss to occur.
