Adrian Cullis from FAO Ethiopia reflects on the recent conference in Addis Ababa on the future of pastoralism in Africa. The event's fundamental take home message is that "there is a future for pastoralism in Africa." However, it looks like there will be different futures and different forms of pastoralism - with winners and losers. He also outlines the work FAO does in this area, and comments on some issues like gender and productivity issues (of rangelands, of livestock) that received insufficient attention in the meeting.

Climate-induced livelihood transitions in the agricultural systems of Africa are increasingly likely. There is limited evidence on what such transitions might look like. We carried out fieldwork in 12 sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda to understand changes in farming systems in the recent past, and to test the hypothesis that sedentary farmers in zones that may become warmer and drier in the future may be forced to increase their reliance on livestock vis-à-vis cropping in the future. We estimated the contribution of crop and livestock activities to incomes, food security and poverty.

Historically, pastoral people were able to more freely use the services their semi-arid and arid ecosystems provide, and they adapted to changes in ways that improved their well-being. More recently, their ability to adapt has been constrained due to changes from within and from outside their communities. To compare possible responses by pastoral communities, we modeled ecosystem services and tied those services to decisions that people make at the household level.

This paper examines the effects of wildlife tourism-based payments for ecosystem services (PES) on poverty, wealth inequality and the livelihoods of herders in the Maasai Mara Ecosystem in south-western Kenya. It uses the case of Olare Orok Conservancy PES programme in which pastoral landowners have agreed to voluntary resettlement and exclusion of livestock grazing from their sub-divided lands. These lands are set aside for wildlife tourism, in return for direct monetary payments by a coalition of five commercial tourism operators.