Resource information
The authors use regression analysis to
assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in
rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks:
(i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant
shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset
period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses,
the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does
not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice
farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas
exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively
affected. Rice farm households appear to be able to protect
their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks at the
expense of lower nonfood expenditures per capita. The
authors use propensity score matching to identify community
programs that might moderate the welfare impact of this type
of shock. Access to credit and public works projects in
communities were among the programs with the strongest
moderating effects. This is an important consideration for
the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.
