Rwanda Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

Agriculture is the dominant sector of
the economy, contributing a third of the country’s gross
domestic product (GDP) and about half of Rwanda’s export
earnings. The government of Rwanda has therefore made
agricultural development a priority and allocated
significant resources to improving productivity, expanding
the livestock sector, promoting sustainable land management,
and developing supply chains and value-added activities. At
the same time, Rwanda’s agriculture sector faces a series of
challenges. Agriculture is dominated by small-scale,
subsistence farming under traditional agricultural practices
and rain-fed agriculture. As a result, average crop yields
are low compared with potential yields, and exposed to risks
such as weather related shocks and pest and disease
outbreaks. The purpose of this report is to assess existing
risks to the agriculture sector, prioritize them according
to their frequency and impacts on the sector, and identify
areas of risk management solutions that need deeper
specialized attention. Three levels of risks are assessed:
production risks, market risks, and enabling environment
risks to selected supply chains. The report takes a
quantitative and qualitative approach to risks. The report
is structured as follows: chapter one gives introduction.
Chapter two provides an overview of Rwanda’s economy and the
role and structure of the agriculture sector. Agriculture
sector risks (production, market, and enabling environment
risks) for the selected food crops, export crops, and
livestock are analyzed in chapter three. Analysis of the
adverse impacts of agricultural risks at aggregate and
provincial levels, along with a stakeholder risk assessment
and a discussion of particularly vulnerable groups, is
presented in chapter four. Chapter five prioritizes
identified risks, discusses potential solutions areas,
summarizes feedback from consulted stakeholders, and
recommends solutions areas for further assessment.