Resource information
This paper uses resource-based cereal
equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's
demand and supply for food. Although demand for food
calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the
ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by
income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on
agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between
income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of
countries, China's demand growth appears to have been
broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side,
output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth
associated with income growth and on the country's
agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an
out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production
dynamics suggest that China's current income level
falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips
production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to
decline as China's population growth and dietary
transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity
growth through further investment in research and
development, and expansion in farm size and increased
mechanization, as well as sustainable management of
agricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it is
primarily China that will feed China in the 21st century.
