AN EVALUATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF U.S. FARMLAND PRICES

Previously published empirical models of U.S. farmland prices are reviewed and reestimated including recent data. It is apparent that structural changes have occurred. A simple single equation econometric model with less economic structure appears to forecast better than a simultaneous equation model. Finally, Box-Jenkins forecasts are roughly as good as those based upon a simultaneous equation econometric model, but somewhat inferior to the single equation model. The results suggest that further research may be needed to explain recent movements of farmland prices.