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The question of whether biofuels help
mitigate climate change has attracted much debate in the
literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium
model that explicitly represents land-use change impacts due
to the expansion of biofuels, this study attempts to shed
some light on this question. The study shows that if biofuel
mandates and targets currently announced by more than 40
countries around the world are implemented by 2020 using
crop feedstocks, and if both forests and pasture lands are
used to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion,
this would cause a net increase of greenhouse gas emissions
released to the atmosphere until 2043, since the cumulative
greenhouse gas emissions released through land-use change
would exceed the reduction of emissions due to replacement
of gasoline and diesel until then. However, if the use of
forest lands is avoided by channeling only pasture lands to
meet the demand for new lands, a net increase of cumulative
greenhouse gas emissions would occur but would cease by
2021, only a year after the assumed full implementation of
the mandates and targets. The study also shows, contrary to
common perceptions, that the rate of deforestation does not
increase with the rate of biofuel expansion; instead, the
marginal rate of deforestation and corresponding land-use
emissions decrease even if the production of biofuels increases.
