Resource information
People living in poverty are
particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by
natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous
studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are
also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However,
systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this
finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level
whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods
and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future
climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial
identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day
and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines
and calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds support
that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban
floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural
households, suggesting that different mechanisms—such as
land scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. The
poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under
future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of
people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can
increase or decrease significantly, depending on the
scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of
regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa
exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and
droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive
land-use and development policies that protect poor people
should be a priority.
