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Avarga Toson Lake and its surrounding area are very important for people, wildlife, and animals in Delgerkhaan Soum of Khentii Province in Eastern Mongolia. Some research has been conducted so as to explore the medical nature and characteristics of the lake and its surrounding area. However, the adverse effects of land use have neither been studied nor reported. The fact that the water catchment area is shrinking evidences clearly that findings of various real-time studies must be used effectively in the long-term by the local government and relevant authorities in order to take immediate remedial measures. Our study focused on land cover changes occurring as a result of human activities in the area, using a Landsat imageries and water indices approach to estimate the changes of land use and land cover. The aims of this study were to assess the land use and cover change that occurred between 1989 and 2018 and to define the impacting factors on the changes of water surface area in Avarga Toson Lake area, Mongolia. Findings revealed that the water surface area has decreased by 34.1% in the past 30 years. The lake water area had the weakest, positive correlation with temperature and precipitation. We did not find any indicators suggesting a relationship between lake area and climate variables. In contrast, the area was slightly correlated with socio-economic variables, such as Toson Lake area with the number of visitors (R2 = 0.89) and Burd Lake area the with number of livestocks (R2 = 0.75), respectively. Therefore, the main conclusion of this paper is that socioeconomic factors driven by land use change, policy, and institutional failure together with the existing pressure on the lake may amplify their effect of the water surface area decreasing. Additionally, even if policy adoption is relatively sufficient in the country, the public institutional capacity to implement a successful sustainable land management model regarding land access, land development, land resources protection, land market, and investments in infrastructure remains very limited.
