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This article develops a dynamic micro-economic land use model to identify the cost-effectiveallocation of cropland for traditional row crops and perennial grasses and the mix ofcellulosic feedstocks needed to meet pre-determined biofuel targets over the 2007-2022 period.Yields of perennial grasses are obtained from a biophysical model and together with county leveldata on costs of production for Illinois are used to examine the implications of these targets forcrop and biofuel costs, greenhouse gas emissions, and nitrogen use. The economic viability ofcellulosic feedstocks is found to depend on their yields per acre and the opportunity cost of land.The mix of viable cellulosic feedstocks varies spatially and temporally with corn stover andmiscanthus co-existing in the state; corn stover is viable mainly in central and northern Illinoiswhile miscanthus acres are primarily located in southern Illinois. Biofuel targets lead to asignificant shift in acreage from soybeans and pasture to corn and a change in crop rotation andtillage practices. The biofuel targets assumed here lead to a reduction in greenhouse gasemissions but an increase in nitrogen use.
