First-Order Fire Effects Models for Land Management: Overview and Issues

We give an overview of the science application process at work in supporting fire management. First-order fire effects models, such as those discussed in accompanying papers, are the building blocks of software systems designed for application to landscapes over time scales from days to centuries. Fire effects may be modeled using empirical, rule based, or process approaches. Fire effects software systems can be used to conduct risk assessments, develop prescriptions for fuel treatments or prescribed fire, or support long-term planning. A brief review of the software systems available and the fire effects models on which they are based is presented. We consider the future of software systems for fire management and, given gaps in fire effects modeling capabilities, how to strengthen their foundation.