Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

This paper develops a methodology for
regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas
that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan,
a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of
climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability
index as a function of exposure to climate variability and
natural disasters, sensitivity to the impacts of that
exposure, and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future
climatic changes. This index can inform decisions about
adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment
of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies
regionally and it may therefore prove a useful tool for
policy analysts interested in how to ensure pro-poor
adaptation in developing countries. Index results for
Tajikistan suggest that vulnerability varies according to
socio-economic and institutional development in ways that do
not follow directly from exposure or elevation: geography is
not destiny. The results indicate that urban areas are by
far the least vulnerable, while the eastern Region of
Republican Subordination mountain zone is the most
vulnerable. Prime agricultural valleys are also relatively
more vulnerable, implying that adaptation planners do not
necessarily face a trade-off between defending vulnerable
areas and defending economically important areas. These
results lend support to at least some elements of current
adaptation practice.