Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria

This book analyzes the risks to
Nigeria's development prospects that climate change
poses to agriculture, livestock, and water management. These
sectors were chosen because they are central to achieving
the growth, livelihood, and environmental objectives of
Vision 20: 2020; and because they are already vulnerable to
current climate variability. Since other sectors might also
be affected, the findings of this research provide
lower-bound estimates of overall climate change impacts.
Agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of Nigeria's
Gross Domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 percent of its
people. Because virtually all production is rain-fed,
agriculture is highly vulnerable to weather swings. It
alerts us that increases in temperature, coupled with
changes in precipitation patterns and hydrological regimes,
can only exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The book
proposes 10 practical short-term priority actions, as well
as complementary longer-term initiatives, that could help to
mitigate the threat to vision 20: 2020 that climate change
poses. Nigeria's vision can become a reality if the
country moves promptly to become more climate-resilient.
Climate variability is also undermining Nigeria's
efforts to achieve energy security. Though dominated by
thermal power, the country's energy mix is complemented
by hydropower, which accounts for one-third of grid supply.
Because dams are poorly maintained, current variability in
rainfall results in power outages that affect both
Nigeria's energy security and its growth potential. In
particular, climate models converge in projecting that by
mid-century water flows will increase for almost half the
country, decrease in 10 percent of the country, and be
uncertain over one-third of Nigeria's surface. The
overall feasibility of Nigeria's hydropower potential
is not in question. On grounds of energy diversification and
low carbon co-benefits, exploiting the entire 12 gigawatts
(GW) of hydropower potential should be considered. Nigeria
has a number of actions and policy choices it might consider
for building up its ability to achieve climate-resilient development.