Resource information
Agriculture sector growth has made a
powerful contribution to post-war economic recovery in
Tajikistan, accounting for approximately one third of
overall economic growth from 1998 to 2004. Sector output
increased by 65 percent in real terms during this period,
and has now returned to the level extant at independence in
1990. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has also increased, by
3 percent per year. Despite this progress, there is
legitimate concern that this growth is unsustainable.
Evidence suggests that it has been driven largely by the
external factors noted above, rather than substantive
changes to resources, incentives and the behavior of factor
and commodity markets. First, an extensive program of policy
reform, particularly in the area of land ownership, has yet
to make a substantial impact on the incentive structure for
agricultural workers cultivating the majority of arable
land. Second, sustainable growth requires positive net
investment. Third, commodity markets remain weak, with a
limited capacity to translate increased demand into improved
production incentives. And fourth, growth in crop production
has been largely driven by low value food and cereal crops.
A sustainable increase in access to rural finance will
require much greater emphasis on the development of
alternative sources of finance for all of agriculture, in
addition to resolution of the cotton debt crisis. The
capacity for agricultural loan appraisal and management also
needs to be strengthened, new collateral instruments
introduced and new loan products developed, which are suited
to agriculture in general and small-scale farmers in particular.
