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Encroachment or densification by woody plants affects natural ecosystems around the world. Many studies have reported encroachment in temperate Australia, particularly in coastal ecosystems and grassy woodlands. However, the degree to which published studies reflect broad-scale changes is unknown because most studies intentionally sampled areas with conspicuous densification. We aimed to estimate changes in woody vegetation cover within lowland grassy woodland and coastal ecosystems in Victoria from 1989 to 2005 to determine whether published reports of recent encroachment are representative of broad-scale ecosystem changes. All lowland grassy woodland and coastal ecosystems (c. 6.11 x 10⁵ ha) in Victoria, Australia. Four major ecosystems were analysed: Plains woodlands, Herb-rich woodlands, Riverine woodlands and Coastal vegetation. Changes in woody vegetation cover from 1989 to 2005 were assessed based on state-wide vegetation maps and Landsat analyses of woody vegetation cover conducted by the Australian Greenhouse Office's National Carbon Accounting System. The results show changes in woody cover within mapped patches of native vegetation, rather than changes in the extent of woody vegetation resulting from clearing and revegetation. When pooled across all ecosystems, woody vegetation increased by 18,730 ha from 1989 to 2005. Woody cover within Riverine woodlands and within Plains woodlands each increased by >7000 ha. At the patch scale, the mean percentage cover of woody vegetation in each polygon increased by >5% in all four ecosystems: Riverine woodlands (+9.2% on average), Herb-rich woodlands (+7.6%), Plains woodlands (+6.7%) and Coastal vegetation (+5.9%). Regression models relating degree of encroachment to geographic and climatic variables were extremely weak (r² [less-than or equal to] 0.026), indicating that most variation occurred at local scales rather than across broad geographic gradients. At the scale of observation, woody vegetation cover increased in all lowland woodland and coastal ecosystems over the 16-year period. Thus, published examples of encroachment in selected coastal and woodland patches do appear to reflect widespread increases in woody vegetation cover in these ecosystems. This densification appears to be associated with changes in land management rather than with post-fire vegetation recovery and is likely to be ongoing and long-lasting, with substantial implications for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.
