Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

The consequences of climate change for
agriculture and food security in developing countries are of
serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed
agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption,
many low-income countries are considered to be the most
vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the
impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania.
Representative climate projections are used in calibrated
crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts
in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a
highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model
of Tanzania. The authors find that, relative to a
no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic
agricultural production as the principal channel of impact,
food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a
consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high
degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable
outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions.
Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also
present both by region and by income category.