Resource information
The key messages of this presentation are:
Increasing competition for water severely limits irrigation and constrains food production
Slow progress in extending access to safe drinking water; water quality will decline; amount of water for environmental uses will be inadequate
Moderate worsening in current water policies and investments could lead to full-blown water crisis
Fundamental changes in water management and policy can produce a sustainable future for water and food
The presentation uses the Water Simulation Model to estimate effective water for irrigation and rain fed production based on climate parameters, infrastructure, and policy inputs. It suggests three approaches to the state of availability of water:
Business as usual scenario; assumes continuation of existing trends:
Continued decline in crop research investments
Declining investment in irrigation expansion and reservoir storage
Limited institutional and management reform
Water use efficiency increases slowly
Slow growth in harvested area
Production increase mainly through yield growth
Low priority of rainfed agriculture
Expansion of groundwater pumping
No increase in environmental flows
Water crisis scenario; assumes worsening of existing policies and trends:
Sharp reduction in investment in water storage, O&M
Degradation of irrigation infrastructure and management
Reduced water use efficiency
Lower investment in rainfed crop breeding and slower growth in rainfed crop yields
Increased erosion and sedimentation
Decline in net water storage due to reduced investment and sedimentation
Reduction in environmental flows
Low investment in water supply systems, decline in access to household water services.
Sustainable water use scenario; Assumes improvement of existing policies and trends and focus on environment:
Increase in investment in rainfed crop research and higher growth in rainfed yields
Medium growth in water storage; reduced sedimentation balances lower investment
Higher water use efficiency due to water management reform and higher agricultural water prices
More effective use of rainfall
Increased water prices and higher investment in water supply systems
Sharp increase in reserved environmental flows
Elimination of groundwater overdraft
The policy conclusions presented are as follows:
Reform of water management policies, and investments to improve water efficiency
Water price incentives and water trading
Increasing crop productivity: water management, agricultural research and rural investment.
