Resource information
Climate models generally indicate that
climate volatility may rise in the future, severely
affecting agricultural productivity through greater
frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as
droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is
sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could
have significant implications for poverty. This study
assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania s population to
poverty to changes in climate variability between the late
20th century and early this century. Future climate
scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility
are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to
poverty through its impacts on the production of staple
grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people,
representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering
poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing
outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under
certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest
predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people,
while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty
increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4
percent of the population). The results suggest that the
potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and
climate extremes can be significant for poverty in
Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.
