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In the context of tax sharing reform and land reform during the 1990s, local governments in China relied heavily on land finance. Local governments have fierce competition in attracting investment, omitting the development of green economy. Based on the data of industrial land sales and carbon dioxide emissions, this study constructed the panel data of 196 cities in China from 2007 to 2017 and analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban industrial land price distortion and carbon emission intensity. Furthermore, a multiple linear regression model was constructed from the aspects of scale effect to empirically analyze the overall impact and differential impact of urban industrial land price distortion on carbon emission intensity. With the help of the mediating effect model, the mechanism of urban industrial land price distortion on carbon emission intensity was investigated from the perspective of industrial structure upgrading. The results showed that (1) the higher the price distortion of industrial land is, the more detrimental it is to the development of green and low-carbon economy. (2) The regional heterogeneity test showed that the impact of industrial land price distortion on carbon emission intensity is most significant in the central region, medium cities, and cities with low fiscal self-sufficiency rates, respectively. (3) The higher the distortion degree of industrial land price, the greater the restriction on the upgrading of industrial structure, further increasing the carbon emission intensity. This paper provides policy implications for the market-oriented reform of land factors and the realization of the “double carbon” goal.
